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The Black Swan
  • Published: 7 July 2011
  • ISBN: 9780141034591
  • Imprint: Penguin Press
  • Format: Paperback
  • Pages: 480
  • RRP: $26.99

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Formats & editions
Paperback
7 July 2011
EBook
2 June 2008
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Everything you need to know about what you don't know

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
  • Published: 7 July 2011
  • ISBN: 9780141034591
  • Imprint: Penguin Press
  • Format: Paperback
  • Pages: 480
  • RRP: $26.99
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About the author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent twenty-one years as a risk taker before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafes across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Tandon School of Engineering but self-funds his own research.

His books, Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes and Fooled by Randomness (part of a multi-volume collection called Incerto, Latin for uncertainty), have been translated into thirty-seven languages. Taleb has authored more than fifty scholarly papers as backup to Incerto, ranging from international affairs and risk management to statistical physics. He refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.

portrait photo of Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Also by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Skin in the Game
Fooled by Randomness
Antifragile
The Bed of Procrustes
See all

Praise for The Black Swan

Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling

Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected

Guardian

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling

Financial Times

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot

Sunday Times

The most prophetic voice of all

GQ

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works

Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

It has altered modern thinking

The Times
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