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  • Published: 24 April 2013
  • ISBN: 9780141975658
  • Imprint: Penguin Press
  • Format: Paperback
  • Pages: 544
  • RRP: $27.99

The Signal and the Noise

The Art and Science of Prediction

The acclaimed international bestseller that will change the way you think about the future

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society.

In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every single state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.

  • Published: 24 April 2013
  • ISBN: 9780141975658
  • Imprint: Penguin Press
  • Format: Paperback
  • Pages: 544
  • RRP: $27.99

About the author

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times who became a national sensation in the United States when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. He is a contributor to The New York Times Magazine and has appeared as a commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He has spoken at TED and SXSW, and was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world.

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Praise for The Signal and the Noise

Outstanding... I was hooked

Tim Harford, Financial Times

One of the more momentous books of the decade

The New York Times Book Review

A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically


The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding

Sunday Telegraph

Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?

Jonathan Freedland

Fascinating... our age's Brunel

Bryan Appleyard, Sunday Times

A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability

Daily Telegraph

The Galileo of number crunchers


A 34-year old Delphic Oracle

Daily Beast