For the past two hundred years, Yascha Mounk argues, our world has been defined by the Modern Bargain. The Industrial Revolution increased demand for human labour, raising wages, and building the middle class. The elite’s dependence on skilled workers and loyal soldiers empowered ordinary people and ushered in the democratic age, while the need to make one’s own living gave most people a new sense of identity and purpose.
AI is undermining the foundations of that world. Large language models and increasingly capable robots will automate many of the jobs that now provide income, meaning, and social standing. While all jobs may not disappear as soon as we the pundits think, skilled labour really will become far less scarce over the coming decades. And the middle class – already under serious strain – will pay the price.
When one domino falls, others follow. Millions who lose their jobs will demand to be made whole. But as pressure for redistribution rises, elites will be increasingly tempted to turn against democracy. As surveillance and repression become cheaper, the rich and powerful will become more capable of defying the people.
We are living through one of the most radical transformations in human history. If we simply let the technology rip, it will destroy the conditions for modern prosperity, making millions of people dispensable. But Mounk shows that we can still strike a new bargain, one that gives everyone a stake in the wealth created by machines and keeps ordinary people in control.
The world we have known is coming to an end. It is up to us to make sure that humans remain indispensable in the one that replaces it.
